Betting on tennis: interesting article

I came across an interesting article about betting on tennis.

How to bet tennis

By Stephen Nover
Wed, Jan 3, 2007

Stephen Nover is a handicapper with Covers Experts.

There’s good news and bad news when it comes to wagering on tennis. The good news is you can definitely beat it with proper handicapping, which we’ll discuss shortly.

The bad news is many books only take action on the four grand slam events and don’t put up matches until the quarterfinals. Tennis also involves betting via a moneyline rather than pointspread.

There are some British and other European Internet books, however, that deal various tournaments besides Wimbledon, the French Open, U.S. Open, and Australian Open. Good luck, though, trying to find odds on non-major tournaments in Nevada. The hotels don’t write much business on tennis, even on Wimbledon, so they’re not real interested in booking it. Some don’t even bother with the Australian Open.

Tennis wagering is far more popular in the United Kingdom, ranking behind soccer and horse racing. It’s hard to make money on tennis betting futures, especially on the women’s side. Only a few women are capable of winning a major and their odds are almost always very low.

It’s more wide open with the men, although Roger Federer has replaced retired Pete Sampras as the dominant force. Federer has won the past two Wimbledon titles. Sampras captured seven Wimbledon titles in eight years from 1993-2000.

The way to make money betting tennis is on matches. Sometimes you can find a bad line on a championship match. I still remember taking a huge price with Andres Gomez in the finals of the 1990 French Open against Andre Agassi and collecting. The match should have been closer to pick’em because Gomez was a clay court specialist.

Surface is the No. 1 handicapping factor in tennis. Few players are at their best on all types of surfaces. Wimbledon, for instance, is a grass surface that favors serve-and-volley players with big serves.

Roland Garros, site of the French Open, is a clay surface. This gives an advantage to baseline players, slowing up big serves. It’s not a shock Sampras never won a French Open title during his brilliant career. Europeans and South Americans, who are exposed more to clay courts, usually capture the men’s French Open title.

The past four men’s French Open winners are Gaston Gaudio, Juan Carlos Ferrera, Albert Costa and Gustavo Kuerten. Not exactly household names in the U.S. Americans are better suited for the U.S. Open in Flushing Meadows, N.Y., which is a hard-court surface found in most courts in the U.S.

Either Serena Williams, Venus Williams or Lindsay Davenport – all Americans – won the women’s U.S. Open singles title each year from 1998-2002.

Current form obviously is important when handicapping tennis. You need to be current not only on how a player has been performing lately, but his or her mental state. The mental aspect is huge in tennis.

A textbook example is Martina Hingis in the finals of the ’99 French Open. Hingis won the first set against Steffi Graf, but then unraveled after the supposedly neutral French crowed booed her while openly pulling for Graf. Psyched out, Hingis ended up losing the second and third sets.

Be alert for letdowns following a major upset or extremely satisfying victory. Just look at this past year’s women’s Wimbledon finals when two-time defending champion Serena Williams fell to Maria Sharapova in a stunning upset.

Williams, returning from an eight-month layoff for an injured knee, had knocked off long-time rival Jennifer Capriati in the quarterfinals and then beat Amelie Mauresmo in a grueling three-set semifinal final coming back from 3-1 in the second set after losing the first set. So the situation laid out well for Sharapova.

Injuries, fatigue (both physical and mental) and styles all are major handicapping components. Sampras was arguably the greatest ever at Wimbledon in his prime, but on clay at the French Open, he was vulnerable and often overpriced by linesmakers catering to an American betting public.

It helps to have sources that really know and follow tennis closely. I have two excellent sources. One is a local tennis pro in Las Vegas. He knows all the player’s strengths and weaknesses. He can tell when there’s value on a future book line, and if the price on a match is right or not.

The other source is a gambler who specializes in tennis wagering. His contacts are so good he can come up with legitimate inside information such as so-and-so is breaking in a new racquet or so-and-so is having relationship problems and hasn’t been paying much attention to tennis. These kinds of tips can prove valuable because often they’re not reported by the mainstream media and thus out of information reach for the bookmaker.

These are the edges that make tennis wagering profitable. So its good bookmakers, who deal mainly to North American bettors, that don’t care much about the sport. Except for Wimbledon, it’s a betting sport that remains under the radar screen. That’s just fine for those making money on it each year. No need to call attention to a sport where you have a nice edge.

source:

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=99412&tid=44

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